The Art of Thinking Clearly by world-class thinker and entrepreneur Rolf Dobelli is an eye-opening look at human psychology and reasoning — essential reading for anyone who wants to avoid "cognitive errors" and make better choices in all aspects of their lives.. Have you ever: Invested time in something that, with hindsight, just wasn’t worth it? Rolf Dobelli presents you “The Art of Thinking Clearly,” a book consisted of 99 chapters, which will acquaint you with various cognitive mistakes, such as overestimating the possibility of success or becoming overwhelmed by options. How confident am I? As a decision maker, you are more prone to erotic seduction. Already an international bestseller, The Art of Thinking Clearly distills cutting-edge research from behavioral economics, psychology, and neuroscience into a clever, practical guide for anyone who's ever wanted to be wiser and make better decisions. What evidence would I have to see to make a judgement about whether this situation is improving? The fear of losing something motivates people more than the prospect of gaining of equal value. If a message is communicated in different ways, it will also be received in different ways. If you like something, you believe that the risks are smaller and the benefits greater than they actually are. Am I attributing undue weight to this factor because of its prominence? How good is his success rate? The Art of Thinking Clearly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don't need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic activity—all we need is less irrationality.  What information did I have at the time? Each chapter provides a brief overview of the bias, overview of relevant scientific studies and finally author’s own advice on the matter. Often they base their trading decisions on acquisition prices. Could this information apply to anyone? ... 300 or so pages are minced into 99 chapters. The halo effect occurs when a single aspect dazzles us and affects how we see the full picture. Our ancestors’ experiences were mostly of the linear variety. A bad result does not automatically indicate a bad decision and vice versa. The illusion of control is the tendency to believe that we can influence something over which we have absolutely no sway. Am I avoiding a decision out of fear of regret? Am I trying to shape this into a story? This affects everyone. What would be the ideal sample? Can I set a deadline to force myself to get this done? Disregard any costs to date. Chapter 2: Information is interpreted in a way to make it fit our beliefs. A result of our attraction to plausible stories. Are financial incentives crowding my judgement? Am I just trying to act here? Am I overvaluing this information because it was the first I’d heard? Are we behaving differently here because we are a group? By taking a break, relaxing, and eating something. Doubters are less sexy. Because we didn’t need it before. The Art of Thinking Clearly Summary October 9, 2019 November 18, 2020 Luke Rowley Happiness , Mental Health , Mindfulness , Psychology , Self Improvement 1-Sentence-Summary: The Art of Thinking Clearly is a full compendium of the psychological biases that once helped us survive but now only hinder us from living our best life. What are the broader factors influencing the situation here? Absence is much harder to detect than presence. What does the pre-mortem look like here? In psychologists’ jargon, this technique is called framing. Everyone experiences flawed patterns in the process of reasoning. Or is it linear? Summary written by: Steve Riley. We systematically err in the same direction. Have I put us in a position to guard against negative Black Swans? On the basis of risk, you can decide whether or not to take a gamble. Read summary of The Art Of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli. What predictions am I making about this? The Art of Thinking Clearly Rolf Dobelli, trans. What if I just wait? The introduction of “now” causes us to make inconsistent decisions. Psychology is a big part of the stock market investment. Am I avoiding a particular path because the consequences are bad, but less bad than inaction? The book was written as weekly columns in leading newspapers in Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, and later in two German books. What groups are currently affecting my thinking?  What are clear and verifiable milestones? Or am I trying to transfer knowledge from one domain to another? What does the market think? Is the sample size enough to make a conclusion about luck vs. skill here? Is some sort of authority figure exerting an influence on me? Am I falsely relying on probabilities just to avoid ambiguity? Uncertainty means that the probabilities are unknown. In other words: We lack an intuitive grasp of probability. First, we have real knowledge. How unlikely is this event? Never judge a decision purely by its result, especially when randomness and “external factors” play a role. Have I truly gathered information about them? Are they appropriate? Am I looking at only the future costs and benefits? Will I be able to better assess my options? Induction seduces us and leads us to conclusions such as: “Mankind has always survived, so we will be able to tackle any future challenges, too.” Sounds good in theory, but what we fail to realize is that such a statement can only come from a species that has lasted until now. Oops! Am I trying to reinterpret things to maintain a previous attitude or belief? What are the associated risks with each path? How do we know that one causes the other? What is being said here? Are they crowding other incentives for the people involved here? Am I within my circle of competence? How do we know they are linked at all? Is the reasoning behind this sound, or am I just going along with a “because” reason? The failure to think clearly, or what experts call a ‘cognitive error’, is a systematic deviation from logic – from optimal, rational, reasonable thought and A fantastic book summarizing a variety of biases that affect our thinking and decision-making. By “systematic,” I Am I focusing on something here? Is this likely due to chance, or is there a demonstrated record of success? Is it actually useful? Am I overvaluing parts of this because I put effort into them? She will never sit down on a hot-stove lid again—and that is well; but also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore. If you don’t like something, the opposite is true. The art of thinking clearly — Summary 15/02/2017 by Karl Niebuhr Learn how irrational our behavior is, and use that knowledge to make better decisions. On the other hand, once we’ve completed a task and checked it off our mental list, it is erased from memory. What am I missing? Willpower is like a battery. Are my feelings about this subject, topic, or my current feelings contributing to my evaluation? Am I valuing this too highly because it is already mine? We recommend this book to all people who want to make better choices. People behave differently in groups than when alone. By “systematic,” I mean that these are not just occasional errors in judgment but rather routine mistakes, barriers to logic we stumble over time and again, repeating patterns through generations and through the centuries. In daily life, because triumph is made more visible than failure, we systematically overestimate our chances of succeeding. Is my behaviour different because I won this money or got something for free? What is the past performance behind this claim? The Art of Thinking Clearly is a book by Rolf Dobelli that aims to help us make better decisions in life. Why do these factors exist instead of nothing? As an outsider, we succumb to an illusion, and we mistake how minuscule the probability of success really is. We have difficulty with absolute judgments. There is a paragraph in it that is best summing up the book: Thinking is in itself not pure, but prone to error. Summary: Psychological biases affect our thinking and decision-making, evading these errors in thinking will make us wiser.. Are there other situations similar to this where I can find data? Or using intuition? Challenging our assumptions and thoughts are helpful in gaining wisdom overtime. The belief that reflection leads to truth or accuracy is called the introspection illusion. Are there a large number of players here? The Art Of Thinking Clearly aims to illuminate our day-to-day thinking “hiccups” so that we can better avoid them and start making improved choices. 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